Revealing referee bias in the NFL Which teams are favored?

Addressing the problem of judicial bias requires a multifaceted approach that includes both proactive measures and systemic reforms. Training programmes aimed at raising judges’ awareness of unconscious bias can help mitigate the influence of subjective factors on their decisions. In addition, the introduction of technological solutions, such as video assistant referee (VAR) systems, can provide judges with improved tools to make accurate decisions, reducing the likelihood of human error or bias. The first research to comprehensively focus on HA and referee bias in the Turkish Super League pointed to the home advantage in the Super League 26.

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Moreover, to the best of our knowledge, no studies are currently available that investigate this matter specifically concerning the Turkish Super League. Following a natural experiment approach, we contrast in-conference games with a quasi-control group consisting of games involving teams from different conferences. Specifically, we find significant relationships between the betting line variables—expected game closeness and clear game favorite—and penalties among ACC and former Big East officials that suggests bias toward the underdog team during in-conference games.

The variations in outcomes by referees shown in Table 2 are strong indicators of inconsistencies in refereeing, even at the elite or highly experienced professional level but not necessarily as a result of unconscious bias. For this to be established we would need to show that match outcomes, particularly relating to the home team, are impacted by consistent, albeit unconscious decisions by the referee. There seems little doubt that refereeing decisions can impact the outcomes in NRL matches but, how important are they in aggregate and are they the result of unconscious bias? One way of moving toward this conclusion would be to quantify the extent to which referee decisions do make a difference to match statistics. These data provide information for the events that took place during each game, including the technical fouls called. I only consider personal technical fouls, that is, I filter out calls like defensive 3 s, delay of game etc., that are labeled as technical fouls as well.

These biases can impact decision-making and lead to unfair treatment of certain players or teams. Similarly, research in basketball has shown that referees exhibit implicit bias based on factors such as a player’s race and reputation. Research conducted by professors Justin Wolfers and Joseph Price has shown that NBA referees are more likely to record fouls against players of opposite races, a phenomenon known as racial bias.

Additionally, the rise of digital and social media platforms has given fans, journalists, and academics a platform to hold the NBA accountable for biased officiating. With the expansion of legalized sports betting, the relationship between referee bias and wagering outcomes gains further significance. The difference in the personal technical fouls call rate between same and different referee-player race is not statistically different than the one expected by random chance. Accusations and insinuations of bias by referees, in particular, can pose an extra threat to decision-making and thought processes in game play and penalty calls.

The authors would like to thank Brandon Brunner and Mark Howard collecting data and providing support in the beginning of this study. The authors are also grateful for support from Pam Perrewé, Kyle Scheine, Jeremy Simms, Yan Yu, John Futch, Levi Kitchen, Glenn Lebowski, Jeff Harris, Thelma Horn, and Kathleen Veslany. The authors owe thanks to Kristy Stamper and Macie Farmer for their work creating elegant visualizations.

Match sample

These tendencies can shift the dynamics of a match, affecting everything from player behavior to scoring opportunities. By doing so, we strengthen our collective understanding and enhance our betting strategies. These tendencies affect not only game results but also shape our betting strategies and the trust we place in our wagers. Let’s explore how these nuances shape our betting landscape and potentially enhance our strategies.

The results demonstrated that being close to the grandstand is the most important factor in violence on referees judgments. It is said by strengthening of two teams spectators solidarity, raising awareness and knowledge of spectators about football, much support of culture activities can be used to reduce the incidence of audience aggression. When we partition the sample to include only small teams playing against small teams, our results also remain mostly unchanged. Thus, taken together, our results suggest that referee bias occurs independently of relative team importance. Intuitively, average card differences from previous matches should be correlated with average score differences from previous matches, as both are moving averages across specific teams. In contrast, average card differences from previous matches should be significantly less correlated to the current score of a game.

• Therefore, future research trends should explore VAR’s HA and referee bias by focusing on data from multiple tournaments or leagues.
• Career concerns seem to be relevant, since monitoring inhibits this behaviour and the effect of the refereeing bias on the probability of scoring in the extra time is quantitatively negligible.
• 👥The Dolphins players expressed their frustration with the biased calls, knowing that they could have turned the tide of the game.
• More recently, Işın (15) underlined that HA at different league levels in Turkish football continues regardless of the league level.
• That is, referee bias occurs in a more sophisticated manner than just through the number of cards and penalties.

They are trained to provide leadership and guidance, interpret infractions, adjudicate rules, all while maintaining the highest levels of objectivity and sense (Lirgg et al., 2016; Hancock et al., 2018). Their ability to prioritize and process information, at the right time, in order to select the appropriate response from competing task demands is a sign of their dependability and a reflection of their perceptual-cognitive expertise (Moore et al., 2019). If referees hear rude comments about them from the crowd, they are more likely to make calls against the home team. Complaints about officiating in professional sports have become increasingly prominent in recent years due to missed or poor calls impacting the outcome of games. Controversial calls can have a significant impact on the outcome of a basketball game, and can also have a lasting impact on fan perception of officials and the league as a whole. When a call is perceived as unfair or incorrect, it can lead to frustration, anger, and even accusations of bias or corruption.

Another phenomenon related to HA is referee bias, which affects referees’ decisions due to crowd noise and social pressure roobetofficial.com from home fans 15. Recently, HA has been the topic of research in several sports, particularly football 16, 17. Several authors have demonstrated the existence of HA and emphasized that home teams have an important advantage 18, 19. Moreover, HA and referee bias have been demonstrated at different league levels 15, 20 and similarly in women’s football 21.

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Weather conditions and game location significantly impact referee performance and decision-making. Perhaps worth noting is the fact that the coefficient for big-five teams is larger relative to the OLS models, and becomes significant at the 5 percent level. We perform a Hausman test to assess whether the coefficients for the OLS and 2-SLS models are statistically different. This supports the use of the 2-SLS model, and sustains the hypothesis that the inclusion of avgdiff as an explanatory variable may result in endogeneity problems with the error term. • A set of control variables which adjust for the quality of the team; EHGF (expected home points for), EHGA (expected home points against), EAGF (expected away points for) and EAGA (expected away points against)4. • Penalty difference, the difference in penalties awarded to the home team minus the penalties awarded to the away team / Scrum difference, the difference in home team fed scrums3.